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W7EES > SWPC 12.04.20 04:30l 48 Lines 2016 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16015_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<JH4XSY<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200412/0019Z 16015@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 11/1823Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/1457Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
11/1458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 231 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 071
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
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