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W7EES > SWPC 01.05.20 16:17l 48 Lines 1921 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16404_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 200429/2328Z 16404@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 393 km/s at 28/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Apr,
01 May, 02 May).
III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 070
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
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