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W7EES > SWPC 01.05.20 16:17l 51 Lines 1970 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16195_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU9FQR<LU9DCE<VA3TOK<GB7YEW<PE1RRR<K5DAT<N3HYM<
W7EES
Sent: 200424/0032Z 16195@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 449 km/s at 22/2300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
23/0145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 069
Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 23 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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