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LW3DBH > SOLAR 01.05.20 16:17l 68 Lines 2317 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 61886_LW3DBH
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Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 16 04
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<LU3DVN<XE1ITG<N3HYM<CX2SA<
DB0ZAV<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200417/0108Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:61886 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:61886_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : SOLAR@WW
_ __ _______ ____ ____ _ _
| |\ \ / /___ /| _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 459 km/s at 16/0132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 069
Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 16 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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