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W7EES > SWPC 03.05.20 01:30l 50 Lines 1982 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16533_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<KE0GB<GB7YEW<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200502/2325Z 16533@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 02/0509Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
02/1048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/0359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 May,
04 May, 05 May).
III. Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 May 069
Predicted 03 May-05 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 02 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 007/008-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/25
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