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LW3DBH > SOLAR 04.05.20 03:25l 73 Lines 2450 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 63998_LW3DBH
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Subj: SOLAR GEO ACTIVITY 03 05
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<F4DUR<CX2SA<N3HYM<LU4ECL<LU9HGS<
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Sent: 200504/0110Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:63998 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:63998_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : SOLAR@WW
_ __ _______ ____ ____ _ _
| |\ \ / /___ /| _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2020 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 344 km/s at 02/2245Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
03/2000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/1825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 May,
05 May, 06 May).
III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 069
Predicted 04 May-06 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 008/008-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/20
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