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CX2SA > SWPC 13.05.15 00:23l 65 Lines 2378 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20480_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150512/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20480 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20480_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1151Z from Region 2339 (N14W19). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May,
15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
455 km/s at 12/1850Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 12/0649Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/1459Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at
12/0730Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15
May).
III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 163
Predicted 13 May-15 May 160/155/150
90 Day Mean 12 May 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 019/025-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/20
Minor Storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/45/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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