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W7EES > SWPC 13.05.20 04:07l 51 Lines 1871 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17048_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU9FQR<LU3DVN<LU9HGS<LU1HVK<N7HPX<W9GM<N3HYM<
W7EES
Sent: 200513/0035Z 17048@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 326 km/s at 11/2341Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15
May).
III. Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 069
Predicted 13 May-15 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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