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W7EES > SWPC 20.05.20 03:13l 49 Lines 2004 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17409_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<OK2PEN<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200520/0037Z 17409@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 405 km/s at 19/2003Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
18/2341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 May, 22 May).
III. Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 069
Predicted 20 May-22 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/05
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