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W7EES > SWPC 17.07.20 02:31l 48 Lines 1967 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19593_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<SR4BBX<SR9ZAA<VE2PKT<GB7YEW<PE1RRR<K5DAT<
N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200717/0033Z 19593@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 449 km/s at 16/0347Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
16/0805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 186 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19
Jul).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 069
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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