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W7EES > SWPC 03.08.20 00:30l 49 Lines 2018 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20142_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<CX2SA<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200802/2218Z 20142@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 02/2058Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 02/1145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
02/1146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Aug, 04 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (05 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 073
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 073/071/071
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 007/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/10
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