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W7EES > SWPC 08.08.20 04:00l 49 Lines 2045 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20307_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<JH4XSY<N3HYM<GB7YEW<PE1RRR<N9LYA<W9JUN<N7TRY<
W7EES
Sent: 200808/0029Z 20307@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 502 km/s at 06/2244Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/1113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/2327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1683 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 074
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 073/073/071
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 008/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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