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W7EES > SWPC 09.08.20 03:04l 48 Lines 1909 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20345_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200809/0006Z 20345@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 466 km/s at 08/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2171 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11
Aug).
III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 075
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 074/072/072
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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