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W7EES > SWPC 24.08.20 14:30l 49 Lines 2044 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20974_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<I3XTY<IK1NHL<CX2SA<N3HYM<GB7CIP<N1URO<W9JUN<
N7TRY<W7EES
Sent: 200824/1125Z 20974@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 23/2051Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/1308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (25 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 071
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 013/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 007/008-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/35/30
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