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W7EES > SWPC 30.08.20 02:15l 49 Lines 1988 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21245_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0BLO<DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OE5XBR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<CX2SA<
N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200829/2307Z 21245@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 29/0602Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 28/2210Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
28/2212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 947 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31
Aug, 01 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 070
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 010/012-013/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/40
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/45/55
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