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W7EES > SWPC 04.09.20 20:10l 49 Lines 1970 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21529_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<F4DUR<CX2SA<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200904/1411Z 21529@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 486 km/s at 02/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/0502Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 14197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 070
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
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