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W7EES > SWPC 07.10.20 04:00l 50 Lines 1981 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23698_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<HP2BWJ<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 201007/0002Z 23698@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 368 km/s at 05/2350Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 06/0924Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1331 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09
Oct).
III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 072
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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