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W7EES > SWPC 09.10.20 01:30l 49 Lines 1969 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23776_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<JH4XSY<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 201008/2307Z 23776@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 421 km/s at 07/2322Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
07/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1081 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11
Oct).
III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 072
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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