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W7EES > SWPC 22.10.20 02:11l 48 Lines 2026 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24168_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ5KG<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA<F3KT<GB7CIP<N1URO<W9JUN<
N7TRY<W7EES
Sent: 201021/2240Z 24168@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 21/1945Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/0716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/0828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 251 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 074
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 015/018-015/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 65/65/65
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