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W7EES > SWPC 25.10.20 02:12l 49 Lines 2032 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24222_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 201025/0003Z 24222@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 24/1555Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 24/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
24/0107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 916 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Oct, 27 Oct)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 072
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/30
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/65/45
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