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W7EES > SWPC 06.11.20 16:47l 49 Lines 2040 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24511_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<IQ5KG<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<GB7YEW<VK2IO<F1GHX<
N9LYA<W9JUN<N7TRY<W7EES
Sent: 201106/1412Z 24511@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Nov,
07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 382 km/s at 05/2041Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
05/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/2042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2952 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 091
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 091/091/091
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/10
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