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W7EES > SWPC 10.11.20 15:27l 51 Lines 2113 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24586_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<CX2SA<N3HYM<GB7CIP<N9LYA<
W9JUN<N7TRY<W7EES
Sent: 201110/0245Z 24586@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (10 Nov, 11 Nov)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 09/0025Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
09/1358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 820 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12
Nov).
III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 090
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 001/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20
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