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W7EES > SWPC 11.11.20 05:17l 51 Lines 2102 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24605_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<I3XTY<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<PE1RRR<N9LYA<W9JUN<N7TRY<W7EES
Sent: 201111/0138Z 24605@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/1946Z from Region 2781 (S23W23). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 374 km/s at 09/2139Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
10/0554Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 973 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13
Nov).
III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 087
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20
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