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W7EES > SWPC 21.11.20 04:00l 50 Lines 2131 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24790_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<PE1RRR<KD8FMR<N5MDT<N4NVD<N9LYA<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 201120/2328Z 24790@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/1845Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov,
22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 20/0836Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 082
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 082/082/085
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 007/008-014/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/30
Minor Storm 05/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/55/45
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