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W7EES > SWPC 26.11.20 04:00l 53 Lines 2155 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24884_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<JE7YGF<XE1FH<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 201125/2338Z 24884@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
25/0402Z from Region 2786 (S17E53). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov,
27 Nov, 28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s at 24/2225Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/1619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1604Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 104
Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 25 Nov 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 007/008-008/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/10
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