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W7EES > SWPC 27.11.20 04:00l 51 Lines 2148 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24898_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<W0ARP<AL0Y<GB7YEW<VK2IO<PE1RRR<N9LYA<W9JUN<N7TRY<
W7EES
Sent: 201126/2234Z 24898@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/1253Z from Region 2786 (S17E41). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Nov,
28 Nov, 29 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 26/1704Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/1313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1803 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 106
Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 106/108/105
90 Day Mean 26 Nov 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10
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