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W7EES > SWPC 04.12.20 02:47l 52 Lines 2174 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25038_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IK1NHL<CX2SA<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<N9PMO<N9LYA<W9JUN<
N7TRY<W7EES
Sent: 201203/2353Z 25038@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 427 km/s at 03/0300Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/2000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/1346Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 03/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1127 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 103
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 100/095/090
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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