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W7EES > SWPC 20.12.20 18:05l 48 Lines 2031 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25301_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<PE1RRR<CX2SA<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 201220/0013Z 25301@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 373 km/s at 19/1940Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
19/0944Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
19/1126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Dec), quiet to active levels on day
two (21 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 082
Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 19 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 006/005-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/20
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/25
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