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W7EES > SWPC 27.12.20 07:32l 47 Lines 1944 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25446_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<GB7CIP<N1URO<W9JUN<N7TRY<
W7EES
Sent: 201227/0142Z 25446@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.20
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 460 km/s at 25/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1006 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Dec, 28 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (29 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 088
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 005/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25
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