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W7EES > SWPC 15.01.21 21:23l 45 Lines 1670 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25893_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK5FKA<IK5FKA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 210115/0131Z 25893@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 409 km/s at 13/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/1216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
14/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 261 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Jan, 16 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (17 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 074
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 074/075/080
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 006/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/40
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/25/50
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