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W7EES > SWPC 18.01.21 07:25l 46 Lines 1685 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 25961_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<AL0Y<K5DAT<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 210117/2223Z 25961@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 316 km/s at 16/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19
Jan, 20 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 077
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 011/012-013/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/35
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/55/45
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