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W7EES > SWPC 27.01.21 04:00l 46 Lines 1687 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26134_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU1DBQ<LU9DCE<EC5W<KD8FMR<PY2BIL<OK2PEN<N1URO<W9JUN<
W7EES
Sent: 210126/2252Z 26134@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 26/0306Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 25/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 25/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 867 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 076
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 076/074/074
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
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