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CX2SA > SWPC 21.05.15 00:23l 63 Lines 2302 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 20751_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150520/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:20751 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:20751_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/0812Z from Region 2349 (S21E04). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 May,
22 May, 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
652 km/s at 20/0410Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1543Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0001Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23
May).
III. Event probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 106
Predicted 21 May-23 May 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 20 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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