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W7EES > SWPC 06.02.21 07:16l 44 Lines 1593 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26311_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<W0ARP<KE0GB<VE3CGR<K5DAT<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 210206/0035Z 26311@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 05/0001Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 406 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 073
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 007/008-014/016-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/35
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