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W7EES > SWPC 12.02.21 18:45l 45 Lines 1634 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26404_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<CX2SA<SV1CMG<ZL2BAU<PY2BIL<N5MDT<
N4NVD<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 210212/0130Z 26404@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 378 km/s at 10/2101Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
11/1550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/0728Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 434 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 076
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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