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W7EES > SWPC 17.02.21 18:42l 47 Lines 1683 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26495_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<VE2PKT<K5DAT<LU9DCE<VE3BWM<N9PMO<
W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 210216/2342Z 26495@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 16/2029Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 16/1552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
16/1404Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 071
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
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