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W7EES > SWPC 26.02.21 18:45l 47 Lines 1680 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26600_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<CX2SA<SV1CMG<ZL2BAU<W9ABA<N9PMO<
KC8KPM<KB8OAK<VE3CGR<LU9DCE<EC5W<KD8FMR<PY2BIL<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 210225/2351Z 26600@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb,
27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/0357Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 971 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 080
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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