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W7EES > SWPC 13.03.21 05:21l 48 Lines 1758 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26837_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<VA3TOK<VE3CGR<K5DAT<W9JUN<
W7EES
Sent: 210313/0013Z 26837@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 11/2203Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 12/0442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
12/0528Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (14 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (15
Mar).
III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 077
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 015/020-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 55/30/10
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