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W7EES > SWPC 13.03.21 08:21l 46 Lines 1685 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26701_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<VE3CGR<VE6NAS<VE2PKT<VA2BBS<
VA3BBS<N9LYA<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 210307/2356Z 26701@W7EES.#NWOR.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.21
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 07/0358Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1419 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Mar, 09 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 078
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 076/072/070
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 007/005-007/005-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/30
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