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ME > SPACE 16.06.21 00:08l 104 Lines 4661 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Re: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 19
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>From me@here.com Tue Jun 15 23:04:57 2021
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>From: "OldbieOne" <me@here.com
Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.space
Organization: DisOrganization
Message-ID: <s6h9fu$n6k$1@gioia.aioe.org>
Reply-To: "OldbieOne" <me@here.com>
Errors-To: sysop
<SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov> wrote in message
news:4FTWNR1Nqjz1ZW7@panix2.panix.com...
> :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
> :Issued: 2021 Apr 26 0356 UTC
> # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
> # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
> # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
> #
> # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
> #
> Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
> 19 - 25 April 2021
>
> Solar activity ranged from very low to R1 (Moderate) over the
> reporting period. Region 2816 (S24, L=262, class/area Dai/120 on 19
> Apr) produced an M1/Sn flare at 19/2342 UTC, the largest of the
> period. The impulsive flare produced both a Type II and Type IV
> radio sweep. Subsequent coronagraph imagery indicated any ejecta
> from the event was not Earth-directed. However, the Region would go
> on to produce a C3/1f flare on 22/0921 UTC that would also produce a
> Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Analysis and modeling of this event
> suggested CME effects would reach Earth over 25 Apr. Over the next
> few days, Region 2816 would continue to slowly decay. No other CME
> signatures observed in available coronagraph imagery suggested a
> component on the Sun-Earth line.
>
> No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
>
> The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
> normal to high levels. High levels were observed on 19-25 Apr before
> geomagnetic activity in response to a passing CME caused flux to
> drop to normal to moderate levels on 26 Apr.
>
> Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
> levels. G1 (Minor) storm conditions were first observed late on 23
> Apr during a transition from a CIR into a negative polarity CH HSS
> following a period of peak total magnetic field strength of 11 nT
> while Bz reached as far south as -10 nT. A second isolated period of
> G1 (Minor) storm conditions was observed early on 25 Apr during the
> onset of influence from a CME that left the Sun on 22 Apr and was
> first observed at L1 at 24/2221 UTC. Solar wind parameters increased
> abruptly to a total magnetic field strength of 11 nT and Bz dropped
> to -8 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to ~490 km/s and would
> fluctuate between ~460-500 km/s through the end of the reporting
> period. A negative polarity CH HSS produced active conditions on 19
> Apr and unsettled conditions on 20-21 Apr. Wind speeds from the HSS
> decreased from ~650 km/s on 20 Apr to under 450 km/s by 22 Apr. Only
> quiet conditions were observed on 22 Apr.
>
> Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
> 26 April - 22 May 2021
>
> Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for
> moderate activity from Region 2820 (S22, L=210, class/area Dai/80 on
> 25 Apr) over 26 Apr - 01 May, when the region will rotate around the
> W. limb.
>
> No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
>
> The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
> expected to range from moderate to high. High levels are likely on
> 14-22 May due to activity associated with an anticipated negative
> polarity CH HSS. Normal to moderate levels are likely for the
> remainder of the outlook period.
>
> Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
> (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Active conditions are likely on
> 26 Apr due to waning CME effects. Active conditions are again likely
> on 02-03 May and unsettled on 04 May under influence from a positive
> polarity CH HSS. A SSBC is expected to cause unsettled conditions on
> 11 May and negative polarity CH HSS influence is expected to cause
> active conditions on 12 May, G1 (Minor) conditions on 13 May, G2
> (Moderate) conditions on 14 May before decreasing to active
> conditions on 12-17 May as CH HSS effects wane. Another negative
> polarity CH HSS is expected to cause active conditions on 20 May and
> unsettled conditions on 21 May. The remainder of the outlook period
> is expected to be at quiet levels.
Thank you for continuing to post these valuable reports to USENET
--
OldbieOne
The One Who Tells It Like It Is (TM)
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