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CX2SA > SWPC 29.05.15 00:22l 62 Lines 2266 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21488_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IK2XDE<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 150528/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21488 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21488_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 May 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/2131Z from Region 2356 (S15E75). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May,
30 May, 31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 383 km/s at
28/0316Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/1959Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/2036Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 May) and quiet levels on day three (31 May).
III. Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 093
Predicted 29 May-31 May 090/095/100
90 Day Mean 28 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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