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CX2SA > SWPC 09.06.15 00:22l 61 Lines 2202 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21951_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150608/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:21951 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:21951_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 712 km/s at 08/1128Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 08/0505Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 08/0505Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (10 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (11
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 134
Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 08 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 022/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 016/020-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/05
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 50/25/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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