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CX2SA > SWPC 11.06.15 00:22l 63 Lines 2357 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22024_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150610/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22024 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22024_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
10/0226Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
691 km/s at 10/0943Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1335Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0512Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4602 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jun), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (12 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three
(13 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 135
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun NA/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 008/008-015/020-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/35
Minor Storm 05/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/55/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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