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CX2SA > SWPC 15.06.15 00:22l 65 Lines 2438 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22143_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150614/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22143 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22143_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/0059Z from Region 2360 (N15W91). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (15 Jun) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (16 Jun,
17 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 646 km/s at 14/1944Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 14/1010Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/0824Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1270
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M 30/20/15
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 132
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 017/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 45/25/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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