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CX2SA > SWPC 18.06.15 08:02l 62 Lines 2280 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22305_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<I0OJJ<N6RME<CX2SA
Sent: 150618/0549Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22305 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22305_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 18 0520 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
17/0001Z from Region 2371 (N11E66). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun,
20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
623 km/s at 17/0346Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/2133Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/1320Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2803 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18-20 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 136
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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