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CX2SA > SWPC 23.06.15 01:00l 67 Lines 2565 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22500_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150622/2249Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22500 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22500_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 22 2220 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
22/1823Z from Region 2371 (N13W14). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 737 km/s at 22/1830Z. Total IMF reached 42 nT at 22/2000Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -39 nT at 22/1850Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1066
pfu at 22/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet
to minor storm levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun). Protons
are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24
Jun, 25 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 99/99/99
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 135
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 0NA/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 035/054
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 024/040-014/020-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/45/35
Minor Storm 40/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/05/10
Minor Storm 10/20/25
Major-severe storm 90/70/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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