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W7EES > SWPC 12.08.14 02:19l 51 Lines 1864 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 55CCW7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<N6RME<N0KFQ<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 140808/2241 21964@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4/1n event observed at
08/1701Z from Region 2135 (N11E36). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
417 km/s at 08/1528Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0920Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 07/2348Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 372 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (09 Aug, 11 Aug) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (10 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 123
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/25/10
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