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CX2SA > SWPC 29.06.15 00:22l 68 Lines 2667 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22811_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150628/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22811 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22811_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jun 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1714Z from Region 2373 (N15E67). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (29 Jun) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
565 km/s at 28/0253Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/2156Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/2219Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at
28/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6994 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (29 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (30 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 60/05/05
Class X 20/01/01
Proton 20/10/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 097
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 009/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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