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CX2SA > SWPC 04.07.15 00:22l 63 Lines 2278 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23330_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 150703/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23330 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23330_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/1251Z from Region 2378 (S17E56). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at
03/0251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5791 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jul), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 112
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 112/112/115
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 007/008-020/030-016/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor Storm 05/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/55/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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