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CX2SA > SWPC 05.07.15 00:23l 65 Lines 2392 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 23372_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150704/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:23372 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:23372_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/0008Z from Region 2378 (S16E44). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 605 km/s at 04/2023Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 04/1905Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -22 nT at 04/1911Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4503
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jul), unsettled to
active levels on day two (06 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jul 117
Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 04 Jul 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 014/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 020/030-014/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/25
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/50/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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